Pakistan, Afghanistan and India : the most dangerous triangle ever

Pakistan has a nuclear bomb, India probably or maybe or somewhere in between and both countries are still at war over their borders and because they have learned to hate each other because of that during years. It is a very destabilised country and part of that country - between Pakistan and Afghanistan has never been under its control (they call it tribal country). In fact it is in that region that Bin laden has found a safe haven and where Al Qaida (together with tribal gangs or not depending on the circumstances) are waging war in Afghanistan, in Pakistan with terror attacks and against the numerous operations that government of Pakistan has done to install itself and control more or less the situation.

Some weeks ago the special force that was created for that was said to be leaving the area (and its fortifications for which Al Qaida was thankful) because they were not making any success. Since than the regular Pakistan army probably backup with western support has bombed and attacked some of these new Al Qaida centers and killed hundreds of them. (they were like honeypots...).

The strategic importance of the region is also clear if one looks at all the high level leaders that have been captured or killed in that region the last couple of years. The latest being the military Al Qaida commander for Afghanistan. The military leaders dream of putting up fences and biometric controls but in that region of mountains and valleys this is just crazy.

Pakistan is now going through some very difficult moments but the real question is not in Pakistan who the leader is but who will control the secret service and what will they do. The NATO forces and the US are convinced that the Pakistani secret service (or elements of it) have yet to be told that the cold war is over and that it is now their allies the Americans that are in Afghanistan and not the Russians and that they should stop supporting the Al Qaida groups in that tribal region and beyond.

More so as the news from Afghanistan worsens - and that you only read in more specialised publications. In short the situation is like this. AL Qaida controls around 40% of Afghanistan and has been importing fighters from around the world but also seasoned fighters from Iraq. They are using simple non-technological bombs and suicide attacks against the foreign aid services and army posts and dear now to come in Kabul, which wasn't the case some years ago. They are funded by drugsmoney and the Kabul government can't seem to do something against that kind of plantations in an effective way. At the other hand the money that was promised to help reconstruct the country (and that would win over the hearts) hasn't been coming forward as promised (also with the part of Belgian). The other side of the fact is that the troops and the material in Afghanistan have not taken into account the influx of all these fighters and all these new attacks. There are not enough soldiers and surely not enough helicopters to act as swiftly as they should. At the other side if they can hold out till winter, than it will become much calmer because for Al Qaida in the mountains it will be very difficult to mount operations. Except if they can take over some valleys, garizons or villages or cities. So don't be surprised if Afghanistan will be a lot more in the news between now and the winter.

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