09/28/2008
Fortis gone, who is next ? (read the study)
http://belsec.skynetblogs.be/post/6279246/can-the-big-eur...
http://belsec.skynetblogs.be/post/6274699/are-european-ba...- look here at the table
for the moment no one has contradicted this study and the Belgian/so called European reaction to the final showdown around Fortis has not shown any indication that the political and financial regulators and authorities have understood that only an European re-action will help to stem the tide. Meanwhile every country will start to have to take its own actions to safeguard its own banks that are sliding into danger zone. This is for example the case in the UK. It would be disconcerting if they are not showing any intentiona t this time they have to set up reaction and safeguard plans in case any of their major banks come under attack. It is true that Fortis made some great tactical mistakes but they shouldn't accept the discourse of bankers that everything is in order and that there are no economic reasons to worry or to do something special. Bankers think that in the end everything will fall back into place.
Market watchers and people who have seen already before the disastrous effects of a market driven speculation coupled with a total inertia and incompetence of the victim to respond with an efficient crisis communication (and not a communication in crisis) know that this is the endgame. It is psychology, yes driven by online media and offline media (all the newspapers here have firstpages headlines about the endgame around Fortis, all the newsprogrammes on TV and Radio talk about it in these terms, people talk about it and get their money out) but that is the reality each big firm has to live with and prepare for (get a cyberwatch and respond (also legal) team together now and not tomorrow).
There are appeals that don't wash in these times. THe government and some newspapers ask the people to keep their money on the bank but in the same paper you will read that there ain't much money in the fund that should guarantee your money. The prime minister says that the government will guarantee the rest of the money for each EURO. But an hour later the same government says that they have big problems with getting their own budget together.
So Fortis is out, gone and finished. If you look at the study there are other possible victims in the waiting who can start preparing themselves for as long as they have a timegap to use. The first and most important question is, are the numbers right and the second question is, are the European political and financial leaders and regulators (it appears that the European Commission is still thinking in terms of market share and concurrence and not in terms of saving what can be saved of the financial market in Europe) willing and able to act together like a Financial NATO as they did to stop the speculation against their different currencies before the EURO ?
These are dangerous times that ask for real leadership. Every leader will now have the opportunity to show that he or she is worth every cent of the enormous sums of money they are making. This in the names of all the little people who have all they have on their banks and financial institutions. And which feel betrayed that some people have played such dangerous game of poker and seem to have lost all. It is time to indicate objectively which other banks and institutions can become victims of the same situation and prepare, prepare and prepare (and do not listen to bankers, listen to the market because when the market moves the market has to be stopped and bankers don't understand the psychology of the market to stop it).
It is - as a closing thought - a very cynical thought that the financial meltdown that Lippens of Fortis predicted some weeks ago started in the Euro zone with his own bank.
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