10/09/2008

Dexia US stock investor Ackman speculation on defaulting

Ackman told a crowd of about 100 hedge fund managers in New York Wednesday evening that, like MBIA (MBI) and Ambac (ABK), FSA is an "example of what happens when you start with a low-risk business, then add more risk to get higher returns. A company will keep doing that until it does something stupid."

Instead he is buying credit default swaps on FSA's bonds. This means he is purchasing a type of insurance against the event of default. If the market were to decide that FSA was troubled, the value of that insurance would rise as people rushed to buy the swaps.

source (the article is astonishing, something you never read here in Belgium except in De Tijd and that is an eye-opener for everyone reading here only the names FSA and not knowing what is really happening with FSA in the States, even if one of the biggest banks in Belgium and the main official lender to municipalities is going for broke on it).

"The value of some of the securities backing those contracts has tumbled so much that the company's liabilities of $20.4 billion exceed its assets of $16.2 billion, Ackman said" source

and who is Ackman ?

"Ackman does higher quality research than just about anyone else on Wall Street, and it can take the market years to catch up with him. In the case of Amback and MBIA, an analysis of stock charts would made Ackman look like a buffoon for years after he started raising red flags. If Ackman's research is sound -- historically, it generally has been -- patient investors should do quite well following him into Target and Sears."  source

and why such investors are far ahead of regulations

"Ackman didn’t believe that Dexia had the money to cover the likely losses on FSA’s guarantees, so he shorted FSA. Lo and behold, FSA has run into so much trouble that its need for money finally sank its parent bank. Note to regulators who think short sellers are behind the recent collapse of some of the world’s biggest financial institutions: no amount of protection from Ackman would have saved Dexia. It dug its own grave long ago." source

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