#ukraine the US hesitation gives Chinese warhawks more influence

"For Colonel Fang, Russia has the initiative. The U.S. lacks military options, and “Russia does not fear,” according to this Chinese analysis. Russia’s “actual control” over Crimea is a decisive factor in the present crisis that the Chinese have not missed. True, some other Chinese analysts have been more circumspect, pointing to the prospect of major losses to the Russian economy (国际问题研究, April 2014), but many others, such as a Xinhua Russian expert writing in May 2014, seem to follow Colonel Fang’s interpretation and admire “Russia’s rejection of the West’s global leadership, its defense of its core interests, and its lack of hesitation in becoming the enemy of the West.” (军事文摘, May 2014) It might be impossible to determine definitively whether the Ukraine Crisis has impacted China’s risk calculus in hotspots such as the South and East China Sea, but the evidence discussed above certainly suggests that such eastern reverberations are quite plausible
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/what-does-china-really-think-about-the-ukraine-crisis-

we forgot that before Ukraine everyone was looking to the South Chinese Sea for the next war or tension area and where - before the Krim invasion - the US was planning to replace its military forces (closing most of Europeans bases as not important enough) and planning to invest more in battle ships

this has now all changed off course

but the political leadership has not yet followed the military planners who are now transferring military hardware, knowledge and bases back to Eastern Europe (with Estonia becoming the next possible standoff with of without invasions, disruptions or incidents).

The Chinese are looking very closely at what is happening - and they also know that untill the US election of 2016 they have a window of opportunity

and they are not the only one

but one should remember that the US was very late to become involved in the two world wars and only slowly became embroiled in Vietnam, saying that the big brother may be asleep but if he awakens it an mobilize or produce and enormous force

after Ukraine, you can say that the big sleeping bear has one eye opened, saying 'huh what is that, I thought I was out of European war for another century ?' while sending some pics to the IS and playing with flowers about other conflicts 'I bomb him, I don't bomb him yet, I bomb him, I don't bomb him yet'

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