10/03/2014

why the Russians lost the donbass in #ukraine but won back enough to hold two major cities and what is next

Youi see two things very clearly

* why the Russian invasion the 27th of august was the last chance for the Russians to intervene and why it was a gamechanger

* why the truce is not a truce and on the ground there is still daily fighting and why that is (because the Russians want to reinforce their corridor to the sea (and later on to Mariupol that they need to have a viable 'frozen conflictzone)

so expect more fighting

but the reason the Ukranian President chose the Truce is not for the pleas or beautiful eyes of Merkel but because his country was the 27th of August to ready to fight the invasion force of 20K to 40k Russian military standing ready at the frontier to invade whenever Putin thought he had the chance. It would mean that he would have to mobilize the whole army (changing a civil country to a military country and a peace economy in a war economy).

remember that at the start of the second world war neither the US, UK or Russia were ready to confront the German war machine (which was surely the case for the countries that were run over). They all had decided that once they have declared war or were faced with the real possiblity of war they needed at least 2 years to produce enough arms, train and transport enough soldiers and collect enough knowledge and intelligence before having any chance of winning or even surviving in a direct confrontation). The first objective in 1940 (UK), in 1941 (Russia) and 1942 was just holding on and not surrendering and saving as many troops and material as was possible and meanwhile mobilizing every aspect of the civil life and economy for the war, transforming everything.

He didn't want to do that now and he knows it will take one to two years before the army is ready to go on the real offensive and maybe at that time Russia is so weakened it will seek a quick way out, who knows

and if you look at the political calender you will see that by that time the US will have another president and if President Putin is really so stupid to continue to provoke the US and NATO at the border and in the air and with a very strange mix of extreme Russian or Slavic nationalism, worshipping of Stalin and the Orthodox Church and military operations or exercises or funding or training of 'russian rebels' Inside other countries

than in two years time it will all be totally different

just like two years made a whole lot of difference during WWII for the UK, the US and Russia when they started their wars or were attacked

and by that time the whole of Ukraine is united and mobilized to reconquer the Crimea and the Donbass and has elected officials over the 90% of her territory that will be nationalistic, anti-russian and anticommunist.

and by that time the police, secret service and military will be silently be cleaned of people that are traitors or not willing to fight Russia and they will be replaced or bypassed by people who will be preparing for a war if necessary and will not trust Russia and will not want to work with or for Russia

meanwhile the US will need 2 years to clean up the ISIS mess

Russia can wait for the moment as long as it doesn't provoke a NATO member or starts a new offensive while new US military hardware and soldiers are arriving at our new Eastern front

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