11/04/2014

Are you ready for a bloody war over the weekend in #ukraine ?

all the Ukranian news  https://twitter.com/mailforlen/lists/ukraine (we will add some more as we will follow the situation more closely now as war is coming nearer again)

* the elections in Ukraine and in the occupied regions were just the last bell before the preparations of the new war to come. The strategic goal is to take the airport, Mariupol and everything else if possible if they could create enough chaos to push the fresh troops and tanks through in a 'surprise blitz' 

* the Russian military sending airlines to test nearly a 100 times the western air defenses is not to test their air defenses but is just to try to same trick that Hitler did before Munchen.

about the Hitler tactic - At that time he sent airplanes around, he was showing airplanes and bragging about his power to destroy or level whole cities - just to incite enough fear into the west not to oppose him (and at that time people thought about air bombardements of cities as we do now about atomb bombs - even if London was hardly prepared for the Blitzkrieg and after all it was less destructive that people feared). That he was showing off the same airplanes over and over again and that most of them at that time couldn't even drop one bomb shows another time the importance of good intelligence). It worked at the time for some time but that was all he needed, a bit more time to prepare the next war. 

* there are tons of ammunition arriving in Russian humanitarian trucks (one overturned and the grenades were all over the place) while new tanks and military trucks with fresh soldiers are arriving in Donetsk. They are for the moment being painted green and try to look like Ukranian army trucks (the Soviet really incorporate deception as an integral part of their military strategy and this since decades). 

* Russia has placed 6 SS26 missile launchers at the border with Ukraine with a reach of 500 km (these are nuclear missiles, remember ?) 

* Russian troops are moving from inside Russia to the border with Ukraine 

* the diplomatic reaction from the west on all this has been a confirmation for Putin who had the same goal as Stalin and other Soviet leaders and Hitler (breaking up the western alliance and threatening the eastern countries into submission because they fear that they won't be supported enough - sending some airplanes and holding some wargames won't make the difference). THe only country that has really an army to speak of and that is trained and armed for the defense of its own territory is Poland but they just announced that they need up to two years to move their troops to their eastern borders instead of the old historical locations of their bases in the west of the country. Not one European country is sending officially the weapons that Ukraine so hard needs. 

If we are going to war over the weekend this will mean that the NATO and other critical western communication and decision centers may be faced with DDOS and other attacks. You should be prepared in case. If it doesn't happen than you had a good exercise with leasons learnt to be even better prepared next time. If it happens, you had three days to prepare the network, the emergency infrastructure and the communication procedures. 

But it can also be a bluff

Saying if you don't silently accept the occupation of those two regions and sign that their borders of demarcation are there, than we will go on the offense whatever the reason we will find to do so 

Also he knows that winter is coming and that he can't fight a war during the winter, surely not in donbass and that Ukraine in one to two years will have even more military might to resist any attacks or offensives. The problem with proxy wars (everybody is only writing about the advantages, forgetting the disadvantages) is that you can't put all your military might into the balance because than it isn't a proxy war anymore and if it isn't a proxy war, the other parties have all the possibilities to begin to send arms and volunteers and whatever needed to counterbalance your force. You can only send a few missiles, a few hundred tanks, a few tons of ammunition and undercover military consultants but you always have to balance it with the possibility that in these permanent-media times somebody will upload some video or pic showing the proof that it is you (because spy satellites costs an enormous lot of money but have only a very limited range and impact). 

So he has his windows of opportunity and just as the latest invasion was just during the last possible moment he had to to intervene before Ukraine retook Donetsk (some Ukr. troops were already in some suburbs and advancing) he eventually did it because the socalled rebels were just not up for the job. If he is sending now so much military hardware and new soldiers it shows that he doesn't think that they are up for the next military campaign (and this is why Ukraine has started sending real troops to the region instead of the voluntary national guard). 

So everything will depend on what Putin thinks he can accomplish by a new offensive or the threat of a new offensive. You should also remember that Ukraine for the moment has no government yet and that meanwhile the transition to a legitimate parliament and government has still to happen. It will be much harder for Putin to attack a government that has been elected than the present sitting one. Maybe the politicians in Kiev should speed up their endless quarrels and get a government so the military can do their job saying they are defending the newly elected democratic parliament. 

Remember Putin is an old KGB hand so all these propaganda and contextual factors play a big part in the decision-making, they can even be decisive. 

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