we have been reducing our defense budgets in such a way that in fact we see now that we even don't have any military or intelligence capacity anymore worthy of that name and that when we are challenged we fail pathethically
this has some consequences for Belgium which is host to SHAPE and NATO and seabruges which is a main gaz terminal and Rotterdam and London and Brussels hosting the EU
it is an aircraft carrier
so next time this happens you will not only have to test your monitoring capabilities but also your airdefenses and the time necessary to get your airplanes in the air in different countries which can be targets - as a test
at the other side, just before the second world war the USA had even not an army that could defend California and after Dunkirk the British had only a homeguard and wouldn't be even capable of stopping a German invasion if it ever took place (but as they believed in air supremacy the wanted to win the battle of Britain first which they nearly did - not)
the only problem is that Putin is NOT yet accepting his defeat and even if Merkel is now sliding into accepting the status quo there is no guarantee that Putin has accepted the status quo....
source for picture and textgrab under
look at the map
it is at the sea front
it is Russian controlled
and it is not small
I have friends who have fled this region after the invasion and left everything behind
they never believed they could go back one day
maybe that day is coming near now
Putin has opened something he is not sure he can continue to control and he has lots of territories to control
As reported by the military intelligence service and intelligence service of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, this was the main training camp, where from 300 to 500 militiamen had been continuously trained for the last two weeks. It was not just a basic military training. This camp worked for combat coordination of military units and small groups of terrorists. The camp’s militiamen have already undergone individual training and had an experience of military service,” the journalist informed.
According to Butusov, the camp’s sole existence was the most insolent provocation. It was located outside the settlement, 500-700 meters from the Russian border. In addition, the borderline on this territory is not demarcated and is visually hard to notice.
“At the Russian part of the border, a concentration of troops had been observed, as well as a supply of militiamen. Based on intelligence data, the camp could have been covered by anti-aircraft guided missile systems, as well as Russian anti-aircraft defense. Sending Mi-24 army helicopters there had been risky. The various options for the camp’s liquidation had been discussed, however the order to do so must have been given by Turchynov as the main risk was that in case of accidental destruction of Russian territory by bombs and missiles, Putin could have used that as an excuse for the military intervention,” Butusov emphasized.
Putin is not retreating or not in a way that is important and he is even holding new exercises on the border the day of the Presidential election
that Presidential election will be hold in 2/3 of the voting stations in the fluid situation of the occupied cities in the South of Ukraine - only 1/3 of the voting stations in these cities are occupied by the prorussian militias and even that number is reduced every day as the Ukr troops are retaking smaller villages around these cities and voting stations every day
the prorussian militias haven't been able to break out of their encircled cities, haven't been able to make a corridor between the encircled cities and haven't been able to retreat to the Russian border (to get out) and every day and night there are battles and firefights around the cities pushing the prorussian militias ever closer to the city centers
the occupied cities themselves have fallen victim to crime (and banks have stopped operating) shortages and price increases and even coups and firefights between different groups of the prorussian militias (of which it is clear that surely the top commanders are Russians - although no official soldiers but goons)
the most strangest aspect is the religious aspect that is creeping into the conflict and is also splitting the Orthodox church into a Russian branch which is helping, hiding and sometimes even arming the prorussian militias and an Ukranian branch which defends the democratic state of Ukraine. Some prorussian militia's call themselves armies of the Orthodox church.
the main problem for a big offensive is that the prorussian militias are using effective human shields, firing from appartment blocks, hospitals and schools which makes it difficult for the advancing Ukr troops to shoot even back without making civilean casualties
personally I think that an elected Ukr President hopefully after the first tour (even if a certain percentage of the people will not be able to vote because of the occupation of their cities) would have more legitimacy to lead a real military offensive against the last three stongholds in the South
there are no big prorussian manifestations and take-overs any more in the major other cities like Odessa and the popularity of Putin and secession has decreased significantly the last month
although there had been more rumours about Russian provocateurs in Kiev there have been no major incidents yet
the Odessa fire seems to be investigated now by forensic experts who have found chloroform that was stocked in the occupied building. This gas (also used in Syria) is used to immobilize people for a few hours but which in combination with fire will lead to immediate death. It was also found in several of the dead people that were found and explains the way in which they were found dead.
the border guards have received their new material and have also withstand several attacks and there is no proof that some border points are under control of the militias even if the border with Russia is too long to be able to monitor without camera's and drones
the first volunteer national guards (and some underground freedom fighters) have arrived after their training and the military have also received new material but also did the militias who have now a great number of very powerful anti-tank weapons
the russian journalists and volunteers are stopped at the border and some russian journalists have been arrested while they were participating in an attack on the Ukr army (as spotter) or clearly filming Ukr military positions and weapons. Russian protests very loudly about that but there is enough proof to detain them surely untill after the military operations or expell them definitively.
Prince Charles have caused a storm in Britain by comparing the strategy of Putin with the one of Hitler in 1938-1940 (destabilizing regions internally before invading them) and the Russian sare really upset about that, but the very popular Daily mail persists and calls Putin the Hitler of our times. It takes some time for this image to settle in but when the popular press starts to take a clear stand and educate all the people why the strategy of Putin can lead us in another big war or a sustained series of local wars across our 'Eastern Front' than this is more important than all the discussions and analysis in all the international publications for diplomats and consultants.
NATO is reviewing its strategy and will have to review its defense budgets, the location of the troops and so on as long as Putin is building up his army and holding on to his strategy of getting more by being the bad guy instead of getting nothing as Mr Nice guy (but irrelevant). THe modernization of the Russian army should be finished in a few years and at that time will be a force to reckon with. Due to the sanctions the Russian army is now more or less obliged to order its arms at its own defense industry, except for France who still hope they can deliver their warships to Russia which leads to consternation in Washington and the countries bordering Russia.
China has finally decided to sponsor Russia by paying a price much too high for its gaz. It also creates one big red block of autocratic nondemocratic countries. Russia is also pushing some other countries to stop into an Eurasian alliance.
If the extreme right parties win too many seats in the European parliament untill Sunday Putin will have a lot of friends in the European parliament because he has set up a weird alliance of extreme right, extreme left and extreme orthodox groups and parties united in their hatred of the US. It looks a bit like how the Naziparty looked at first with its leftwingtalking SA, its support from the antisemites in the catholic and protestand churches and from the extreme rightwing militaristic and nationalistic circled financed by big capital. Some also call it the Corporate state because it is no democracy but not a clear dictatorship either - but maybe dictatorships are more complicated than we think.
so we will keep an eye on Ukraine but as the immediate danger of war is going away, we will focus more on the new defense, intelligence and cyberprotection that are needed in this period of cold war 2.0
you can follow all the Ukranian news on twitter.com/mailforlen/lists/ukraine with some 130 mostly english sources
and yes our world has been turned upside down and the strategic and security consequences of this new order of the world have still to be thought through and it will take some time, years perhaps untill we have totally adapted
as public buses were on strike, 300.000 users had to use other transport like the metro to get home
this led to scenes like in this video
what is striking is that 300.000 is also the estimated number of extra users of th epublic transport during the World Cup
ready or not ?
in the US you can petition the white house to do or think about something by signing an online petition
the threshold had been increased to 100L000 after the lower one gave an increase in all kinds of stupid petitions
it doesn't mean that the administration has to do it, but by reaching this treshold the White House will have to consider it and give an official answer to it and for the congress to react to it
being designated a state sponsor of terrorism has enormous consequences in economic, diplomatic and financial relations for official and private businesses
but it would also show Russia - by making it an official enquiry with a full report - that this kind of proxy war has to stop in Ukraine and that if Russia doesn't want a new cold war with proxy wars all over the world and in its rebellious republics - it shouldn't repeat them elsewhere
something that was called 'smart' last month may in the end become something very dangerous
you can in fact state that a government is responsable for controlling its borders to stop the flow of arms and warriors into neighboring countries and to arrest on its own territory militias who are preparing to go to the other countries
both use thunderclap to be able to make their message flood the social web (that is the hype)
In thunderclap people add their social media accounts and give the right to thunderclap to publish a message on their social accounts
mathematically they count the number of contacts, connections and so on and so they state that they will reach x number of people (without counting the number of people who will be annoyed by it)
the belgian campaign only started today
the belgians https://www.thunderclap.it/projects/11884-be-happy-stem-voor-belgi?locale=en
at the other side for all the broehaha about the social media campaign, 2000 people on 6 million voters is not what I would call a tremendous outcome
don't think that the Orthodox church will survive this conflict
somebody is pooring barrels of oil on the fire by injecting some religious aspects in it
Al Qaida has also said that it would be sending volunteers to combat the Russian infidels
Time for the state to start soon after the elections to clean all these militias and restore order
and these are their counterparts (they say that they are organized in cells, have about 4000 members (yeah) and are led by Russian topcommanders (although the Russian deny this)
this is a pic from American spring where everything that is left from the teaparty, the racists, the extreme rightwing militia's and the nuts in the US thought they could rassemble 30 million, 10 million or even 1 million people in DC to overthrow the government
very few came in comparaison
but one pic shows that the Anonymous mask can be worn by anybody for whatever reasons
as a symbol it has become totally meaningless
just as the movement itself finds it every year harder to find some meaning for itself - except from surfing on some other events by making some declarations and hacking some sites in solidarity (but hardly something you could call a worldwide online protest that is making a difference)
except from some media, but who are also getting bored, who cares for the moment what some people saying they are Anonymous (how come ?) are saying ?
well, if you say that we are all one and together, you got extreme rightwing nuts (and islamic nuts in Egypt) wearing your masks
but I will never be same and one with them because if they win, I will lose because they want to take away my freedom, they don't respect the opinion of anyone else, they are not democratic at all, they are in fact against democracy in its purest and best form (still to come)
the Russia of today (look at his feet)
The idea of a “Russian world” which Vladimir Putin has referred to so often and invoked as the basis of his policies in Ukraine and elsewhere was developed by Moscow Patriarch Kirill who may have “underestimated all its consequences,” including the status of the Russian Orthodox Church in Ukraine, according to Andrey Yurash.
Yurash, a religious specialist in the journalism faculty of Lviv University, said that some observers had failed to recognize this because Kirill has been so quiet about Ukrainian events in recent weeks. But the patriarch’s silence appears to reflect his dawning recognition of what the implementation of his idea is leading to.
Specifically, he continues, the Moscow patriarch has not changed his mind about the idea itself. Instead, Kirill is worried about “the further escalation of the conflict and the separation of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate from Moscow” and that this “situation can come back like a boomerang and hit the Russian Orthodox Church as a whole.
Kirill’s fears are justified. Were the Moscow patriarchate’s sees and parishes to break with Moscow or, what would be even worse from his point of view, combine with the Kyiv Patriarchate into a Ukrainian autocephalous church, Kirill would lose much of his power, influence and income.
Indeed, without the Ukrainian parishes now under his control, the Moscow patriarch would be reduced to almost half of its current size in terms of bishoprics and parishes, and Kirill’s credibility in the Kremlin as someone who could promote the center’s interests in non-Russian countries would largely evaporate.
it is time for international observers to have a look at the role the Russian orthodox church is playing because this may very well influence the role and influence of the Orthodox church in the future and what will be its future
example of how democracy is learned at kids of the prorussian militias
this is a an barrett M82, its chinese m-99 PCLA 12,7x108 ammo give 18k joule, compare ptrs-41 14,5 x114 give 32k joule