06/14/2014

#Ukraine will the activists attack the Russian embassy in Kiev again ?

after the penetration of three russian tanks with independentists protected by a Russian helicopter above them (together with missile launching pads)

after the downing of an Ukranian plane with 49 soldiers who were killed

after the decision by the Ukr government that all civileans have to leave now within 36 hours the cities still occupied by the independist militia

after the claim by Putin that Ukranian troops have penetrated into Russian territory

we are back where we came from but now with an elected president - and who now doesn't seem to be afraid to take decisions - while the rest of the world say that they are 'concernend'

what will happen if the embassy is attacked, burned ......

you can follow of the demonstrations here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l4HeKFy2U8k

so we are back into the tension game again - only that meanwhile the militias have lost a lot of their credit of their popular support and didn't accomplish most of their military and political goals while the Ukr haven't used all their military power at their disposal to finish the occupation while the rest of the world is watching football

follow my twitter stream for more news

and to follow my resources, follow my twitter list about Ukraine

 

 

 

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05/29/2014

#abkhazia revolt is just a prorussian change of guard nothing more

"Coordinating Council, a group uniting opposition parties and movements of breakaway Abkhazia, has called for a new, upgraded partnership treaty with Russia, and Abkhazia’s membership in Russian-led Eurasian Union and Customs Union.

 

A statement by the Coordinating Council comes amid political standoff in Abkhazia as the opposition continues holding control of presidential headquarters in Sokhumi, insisting on Abkhaz leader Alexander Ankvab’s resignation. Russian President’s aide, Vladislav Surkov, is in Sokhumi mediating between the opposition and the authorities.

 

The statement by Coordinating Council says that after recognition of independence of Abkhazia by Russia in August, 2008, bilateral ties moved to substantially new level. Russia signed comprehensive treaties on friendship and cooperation with Sokhumi and Tskhinvali in September, 2008.
http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=27280

except if they lose control or things get out of hand

so nothing to be excited about for the moment

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#ukraine why the Russian media said on Ukr election night that the Right Sector won the election.

"Just before the elections wrapped up on May 25, Russia’s state-owned Channel One reported that the neo-fascist Right Sector candidate Dimitri Yarosh had won the election with a plurality of 37 percent of the vote. Their source? Ukraine’s Central Election Commissions Web site.

The reality was much different. Poroshenko claimed victory with almost 60 percent of the vote. Yarosh carried less than one percent—an absolutely disastrous showing for the far right. That’s a pretty big mistake. How could a major news organization like Channel One make such huge error?

Early in the week the Security Service of the Ukraine—or SBU—announced it had arrested several hackers attempting to disrupt the election process.

According to the SBU, the group planned to introduce malware into the election commission’s Web site and servers that would discredit the Ukrainian election by reporting results skewed heavily in the favor of the far-right Yarosh.

The hackers—irresponsibly—bragged about their exploits on the Internet. The SBU paid attention, rounded up members of the group and set to work fixing the election commission’s computer systems. Forty minutes before Channel One aired their story about Yarosh’s victory, the SBU fixed the bug.
https://medium.com/war-is-boring/russias-cyber-war-has-no...

So it was meant to happen and even if it was found out the Russian would have won

* the election was broken

* the right sector could be up in arms because they thought that they would have won and that Kiev had stolen their election back

* all this should have been done all over again giving more times to the militia

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#ukraine why Ukraine needs western drones now - Russian drones are invading its airspace

one was shot down yesterday above Ukraine territory

aside from that it would be possible to spot the infiltrants and smugglers

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#ukraine boycot action started against sponsors FIFA2018 of which Belgian beer InBEV

http://www.boycottputinnow.com/#Belgium

the question is if the FIFA should hold her 1936 football games in the neo-USSR

the Olympic Games didn't change a thing

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05/28/2014

#ukraine one of the best military and intelligence analyses blogs about the war on the ground

nothing is what it seems and is probably totally different from what it seems so it is necessary to look at the experienced detailed analysis by specialists who have the tools, knowledge and mindset to look for possible other explanations of the things we see on twitter or online

http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.be/ 

there are many other sites that are trying to discover russian info-operations but none is as professional as this one

one should also remember that one of the info-ops that the Russians tried to use as a reason to invade was shown on twitter to be a total info-ops a few hours afterwards by a detailed analysis of all the different aspects of proof that the Russians wanted to use

that was maybe the first time that in nearly real time all different people from over the world dissected the socalled proof with their knowledge and mindsets to show why it was fake

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#ukraine #ukraine NATO is not capable anymore of sufficiently monitoring the North Sea (Channel)

we have been reducing our defense budgets in such a way that in fact we see now that we even don't have any military or intelligence capacity anymore worthy of that name and that when we are challenged we fail pathethically

this has some consequences for Belgium which is host to SHAPE and NATO and seabruges which is a main gaz terminal and Rotterdam and London and Brussels hosting the EU

it is an aircraft carrier

so next time this happens you will not only have to test your monitoring capabilities but also your airdefenses and the time necessary to get your airplanes in the air in different countries which can be targets - as a test

at the other side, just before the second world war the USA had even not an army that could defend California and after Dunkirk the British had only a homeguard and wouldn't be even capable of stopping a German invasion if it ever took place (but as they believed in air supremacy the wanted to win the battle of Britain first which they nearly did - not)

the only problem is that Putin is NOT yet accepting his defeat and even if Merkel is now sliding into accepting the status quo there is no guarantee that Putin has accepted the status quo....

source for picture and textgrab under

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/russias-air-craft-carrier-crossed-195206098.html

 

 

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05/27/2014

#abkhazia this is why it is so important what is now happening there

look at the map

it is at the sea front

across Crimea

it is Russian controlled

and it is not small

I have friends who have fled this region after the invasion and left everything behind

they never believed they could go back one day

maybe that day is coming near now

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#ukraine Russian occupied Abkhazia (Georgia) faces big anti-russian protests

Putin has opened something he is not sure he can continue to control and he has lots of territories to control

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.aspx?from=&to=e...

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#ukraine terrorist training camp on Ukraine Russian border destroyed

As reported by the military intelligence service and intelligence service of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, this was the main training camp, where from 300 to 500 militiamen had been continuously trained for the last two weeks. It was not just a basic military training. This camp worked for combat coordination of military units and small groups of terrorists. The camp’s militiamen have already undergone individual training and had an experience of military service,” the journalist informed.

 

According to Butusov, the camp’s sole existence was the most insolent provocation. It was located outside the settlement, 500-700 meters from the Russian border. In addition, the borderline on this territory is not demarcated and is visually hard to notice.

 

“At the Russian part of the border, a concentration of troops had been observed, as well as a supply of militiamen. Based on intelligence data, the camp could have been covered by anti-aircraft guided missile systems, as well as Russian anti-aircraft defense. Sending Mi-24 army helicopters there had been risky. The various options for the camp’s liquidation had been discussed, however the order to do so must have been given by Turchynov as the main risk was that in case of accidental destruction of Russian territory by bombs and missiles, Putin could have used that as an excuse for the military intervention,” Butusov emphasized.
http://euromaidanpr.com/2014/05/27/terrorist-base-near-lu...

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05/26/2014

#ukraine russian military detachments of volunteers arriving in Donetsk

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05/22/2014

#ukraine the situation stabilizes

Putin is not retreating or not in a way that is important and he is even holding new exercises on the border the day of the Presidential election

that Presidential election will be hold in 2/3 of the voting stations in the fluid situation of the occupied cities in the South of Ukraine - only 1/3 of the voting stations in these cities are occupied by the prorussian militias and even that number is reduced every day as the Ukr troops are retaking smaller villages around these cities and voting stations every day

the prorussian militias haven't been able to break out of their encircled cities, haven't been able to make a corridor between the encircled cities and haven't been able to retreat to the Russian border (to get out) and every day and night there are battles and firefights around the cities pushing the prorussian militias ever closer to the city centers

the occupied cities themselves have fallen victim to crime (and banks have stopped operating) shortages and price increases and even coups and firefights between different groups of the prorussian militias (of which it is clear that surely the top commanders are Russians - although no official soldiers but goons)

the most strangest aspect is the religious aspect that is creeping into the conflict and is also splitting the Orthodox church into a Russian branch which is helping, hiding and sometimes even arming the prorussian militias and an Ukranian branch which defends the democratic state of Ukraine. Some prorussian militia's call themselves armies of the Orthodox church.

the main problem for a big offensive is that the prorussian militias are using effective human shields, firing from appartment blocks, hospitals and schools which makes it difficult for the advancing Ukr troops to shoot even back without making civilean casualties

personally I think that an elected Ukr President hopefully after the first tour (even if a certain percentage of the people will not be able to vote because of the occupation of their cities) would have more legitimacy to lead a real military offensive against the last three stongholds in the South

there are no big prorussian manifestations and take-overs any more in the major other cities like Odessa and the popularity of Putin and secession has decreased significantly the last month

although there had been more rumours about Russian provocateurs in Kiev there have been no major incidents yet

the Odessa fire seems to be investigated now by forensic experts who have found chloroform that was stocked in the occupied building. This gas (also used in Syria) is used to immobilize people for a few hours but which in combination with fire will lead to immediate death. It was also found in several of the dead people that were found and explains the way in which they were found dead.

the border guards have received their new material and have also withstand several attacks and there is no proof that some border points are under control of the militias even if the border with Russia is too long to be able to monitor without camera's and drones

the first volunteer national guards (and some underground freedom fighters) have arrived after their training and the military have also received new material but also did the militias who have now a great number of very powerful anti-tank weapons

the russian journalists and volunteers are stopped at the border and some russian journalists have been arrested while they were participating in an attack on the Ukr army (as spotter) or clearly filming Ukr military positions and weapons. Russian protests very loudly about that but there is enough proof to detain them surely untill after the military operations or expell them definitively.

Prince Charles have caused a storm in Britain by comparing the strategy of Putin with the one of Hitler in 1938-1940 (destabilizing regions internally before invading them) and the Russian sare really upset about that, but the very popular Daily mail persists and calls Putin the Hitler of our times. It takes some time for this image to settle in but when the popular press starts to take a clear stand and educate all the people why the strategy of Putin can lead us in another big war or a sustained series of local wars across our 'Eastern Front' than this is more important than all the discussions and analysis in all the international publications for diplomats and consultants.

NATO is reviewing its strategy and will have to review its defense budgets, the location of the troops and so on as long as Putin is building up his army and holding on to his strategy of getting more by being the bad guy instead of getting nothing as Mr Nice guy (but irrelevant). THe modernization of the Russian army should be finished in a few years and at that time will be a force to reckon with. Due to the sanctions the Russian army is now more or less obliged to order its arms at its own defense industry, except for France who still hope they can deliver their warships to Russia which leads to consternation in Washington and the countries bordering Russia.

China has finally decided to sponsor Russia by paying a price much too high for its gaz. It also creates one big red block of autocratic nondemocratic countries. Russia is also pushing some other countries to stop into an Eurasian alliance.

If the extreme right parties win too many seats in the European parliament untill Sunday Putin will have a lot of friends in the European parliament because he has set up a weird alliance of extreme right, extreme left and extreme orthodox groups and parties united in their hatred of the US. It looks a bit like how the Naziparty looked at first with its leftwingtalking SA, its support from the antisemites in the catholic and protestand churches and from the extreme rightwing militaristic and nationalistic circled financed by big capital. Some also call it the Corporate state because it is no democracy but not a clear dictatorship either - but maybe dictatorships are more complicated than we  think.

so we will keep an eye on Ukraine but as the immediate danger of war is going away, we will focus more on the new defense, intelligence and cyberprotection that are needed in this period of cold war 2.0

you can follow all the Ukranian news on twitter.com/mailforlen/lists/ukraine with some 130 mostly english sources

and yes our world has been turned upside down and the strategic and security consequences of this new order of the world have still to be thought through and it will take some time, years perhaps untill we have totally adapted

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brasil fails first transportation test for the world cup - chaos in SPaulo

as public buses were on strike, 300.000 users had to use other transport like the metro to get home

this led to scenes like in this video

what is striking is that 300.000 is also the estimated number of extra users of th epublic transport during the World Cup

ready or not ?

 

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05/21/2014

#ukraine 100.000 online votes want the US to declare Russia a state sponsor of terrorism

in the US you can petition the white house to do or think about something by signing an online petition

the threshold had been increased to 100L000 after the lower one gave an increase in all kinds of stupid petitions

it doesn't mean that the administration has to do it, but by reaching this treshold the White House will have to consider it and give an official answer to it and for the congress to react to it

being designated a state sponsor of terrorism has enormous consequences in economic, diplomatic and financial relations for official and private businesses

but it would also show Russia - by making it an official enquiry with a full report - that this kind of proxy war has to stop in Ukraine and that if Russia doesn't want a new cold war with proxy wars all over the world and in its rebellious republics - it shouldn't repeat them elsewhere

something that was called 'smart' last month may in the end become something very dangerous

you can in fact state that a government is responsable for controlling its borders to stop the flow of arms and warriors into neighboring countries and to arrest on its own territory militias who are preparing to go to the other countries

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05/20/2014

elections 2014 the social media clash between seperatists and belgians

both use thunderclap to be able to make their message flood the social web (that is the hype)

In thunderclap people add their social media accounts and give the right to thunderclap to publish a message on their social accounts

mathematically they count the number of contacts, connections and so on and so they state that they will reach x number of people (without counting the number of people who will be annoyed by it)

the belgian campaign only started today

the belgians  https://www.thunderclap.it/projects/11884-be-happy-stem-voor-belgi?locale=en

The seperatists

https://www.thunderclap.it/projects/10749-verandering-voor-vooruitgang

at the other side for all the broehaha about the social media campaign, 2000 people on 6 million voters is not what I would call a tremendous outcome 

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