The plan over the weekend didn't work there were not enough thugs and weapons and some of the weapons and masterminders were arrested while hundreds of people were stopped at the frontier
when watching sunday the streams and videos I couldn't be but surprised at the level of amateurism in Crowd control and police presence in the cities that were known to be under attack
but you can imagine that the reason is also that because of the stupid disbandend of Birkut (the riotpolice) they only have more or less normal not trained riotpolice squads were available (the same mistake made acoording to the BOOK (not the film) the Green Zone in Iraq). Most of the men of Birkut would probably just do their job.
this doesn't mean that Putin has given up yet
but it is somewhere where we can help Ukraine to help and keep order in its eastern cities that are besieged by provocateurs and external groups (western intelligence think about 250 special operations Russian troops are active on the ground)
they have not these necessary things to keep a normal sense of order
* intelligence (well NSA you have those enormous budgets and infiltrations on all the networks of the world, now you can use them to identify those plans before they take place)
* police training (there are specific tactics in defending buildings, pushing manifestations and attacks etc....)
* democratic rules for demonstrations (you can declare certain zones as 'neutral' where no demonstrations can be held (where the official buildings are), oblige them to keep a certain route, know who the organizers are, oblige them to have their internal order service to seperate hardcore from the rest, setting an hour the manifestation is finished and so on,.....) nothing dicatorial about that, just good practices
* filtering and controls before the manifestation, you can control buses and cars before they enter the city and send them back or keep them aside if they have weapons or bad intentions and are a danger to public order (we use it against foreign hooligans and neonazi's) and you can even imprison them for 24h hours and give them an order in which they can't come back because of that for a number of months)
* sometimes we arrested so many foreign neonazi's we sent them back in buses to the frontier from where they were handed over to the police - (possible even without the buses who were confiscated for investigation (during a year). Try to find another buscompany to bring you next time.....
* those who were younger than 18 had to be sought at the frontier by their parents - who sometimes were in a shock that their kid was doing stupid things like that instead of 'having some fun with friends'......
* all the arrested demonstrators were photographed, interrogated and filed (I saw that some people were staying longer than others in the interrogation room, they probably wanted to cooperate and get it over with)
* they will also need walkie talkies, communication centers and helicopters and mobile camera's (this is important for the arrests after the manifestation - which means that afterwards you control the cars and buses trying to 'leave' the city) and DRONES off course (and interception material or GSM local jamming trucks)
some police forces go even further and use coloured spray to identifiy the most aggressive protestors afterwards
What I have learned in Belgium is that it is not guns and too-lethal non-lethal stuff that makes a difference on the ground but it is training, material, strategy and communication
and I had the impression yesterday that the police forces in the Eastern Provinces were lacking all of that
the west can help with that because that is not military
it is just protecting a democracy who will have elections in two months time and needs now to send a clear message to the planners in the KGB that their plan won't work
if intelligence and police operations work efficiently than there will be no reason whatsoever for Putin to intervene.
and if you don't want to do it officially, you lease the material by private firms and the trainers are 'observers'
this you can call the first 'very low intensity warfare' it is the battle by groups of 'civil people' trying to take over buildings to call in afterwards the tanks