"On Saturday, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry told Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that the Kremlin annexing Crimea would “close any available space for diplomacy.”
The warning is disconcerting because there are three general ways that this crisis could play out: Russia keeps advancing into east and south Ukraine, Russia annexes Crimea and then applies further financial and political pressure on the new government in Kiev, or Russia makes limited concessions and the crisis de-escalates.
By Kerry saying that the diplomatic window is closed if Russia annexes Crimea — which is almost a forgone conclusion — then the best path for de-escalation is obstructed.
"We need a de-escalation and that can only happen via talks," German Vice-Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel, who spoke with Putin in Moscow last week, told Der Spiegel. "It's not a question now of whether we react in a 'hard' or 'soft' manner; rather we have to act in a clever manner."
Furthermore, on Sunday U.S. national security official Tony Blinken said that America won't recognize the March 16 referendum and will increase sanctions on Moscow if and when Crimea secedes.
Meanwhile, experts agree that Vladimir Putin is not going to give up Crimea.
"What's happened in Crimea is a fait accompli. You aren't going to get the Russians out of there," Stephen Larrabee, who specializes in European Security at Rand, told NPR. "I can't see Putin agreeing to withdraw troops that are already there. It would be losing face with his own public."
so whatever the experts (pfff they are nearly always wrong) whatever the Europeans (are there Europeans or are there several different groups of thought on the European continent) think or say
the US has decided - so it seems for now - that the Crimea is the red line and that after Georgia and with several other regional conflicts in Europe unresolved because of Russian interference - it has been enough
one can not have peace in Europe with a Russian neighbor who thinks again that it has to protect its minorities and has a duty to do so - even military - or safeguard its last protective states (states that have to be overrun before you arrive before Moscow (as Napoleon and Hitler did)
everything has changed after the Crimea - and those experts who are already giving it up and think it will be peace afterwards for always are just dreaming - because every other borderstate now knows that the same scenario could be played out against them
many of our paradigma's that we had just a few months ago are into doubt or the dustbin - for the experts it will take much longer before they understand that and are willing to rethink their viewpoints
when one reads nowadays books about the second and first world war there are hundreds of thoughts that come to mind if one reads the news and views today - but I will come later on that
this declaration by the Secretary of State as firm as it has been said - and if confirmed by the President but who is under enormous pressure to keep a firm stand and show some leadership as his whole Russiapolicy is being compared to Chamberlainlike Naivité - is a turn of events that changes things completely.
let's hope now somebody burns all those voting papers so that there is no referendum saturday
the' weekend of all fears' (a good film about the Cuban Missile Crisis is the "Summer of all fears")