finance risk - Page 7

  • dexia crisis : it is the fault of twitter (instead of the US, London, speculators and so on)

    it is always the fault of something or somebody else

    it is never their strategic mistakes or their mismanagement or indecision or foolish mis-communication

    now some say that the crash of dexia is the fault of twitter on which where launched a series of so-called rumors

    and what does Dexia do on twitter

    nothing really, just crap

    :persbericht na raad van bestuur 3/10/11
    19 hours ago Favorite Retweet Reply
    :Communiqué post conseil du 3/10/2011
    19 hours ago
    : press release post board of directors of October 03, 2011
    19 hours ago
    Crédits Logement devient Crefius
    28 Sep
    Woonkredieten wordt Crefius
    28 Sep
    Statement Jean-Luc Dehaene following the Board of Directors' meeting of Dexia SA on 27/09/2011
    28 Sep
    ouverture de la première agence bancaire basse énergie
    16 Sep
    opent eerste laagenergie bankkantoor
    16 Sep
    yeah this is really an example of pro-active following and answering rumors that are appearing on twitter
    when another big firm was in problem I said to them over and over again, you have to follow twitter round the clock and look at the trending of misinformation and rumors and answer them or develop a strategy to answer them
    but dexia can't answer them because they don't know what they will do or have to do
    they are just a ship without fuel in the middle of a huge storm on sea
    there is no media like twitter media and there is no media that fast that I know
    everything i have to know appears on twitter first and than elsewhere
    so it is twiiter here and twitter all the time
    because there is no media as fast as twitter media all the time
    what do you need
    * you need a twitter following tool that will give you in realtime what is being said about your products and firm on twitter and the trending of it
    * you need some people that have nothing else to do than to follow the social media and report permanently or instantly the things people have to pay attention at
    * have fast action-reaction procedures so you don't have to wait for hours to contradict or correct something that afterwards seem to be correct
  • dexia : don't panick but we don't know what we're doing

    the supermanagers of Dexia came together yesterday - without a solution

    and they came together with the international management today - without a solution

    the Belgians are thinking about nationalisation, the french about a break-up and the startup of a new bank and the government of Luxembourg doesn't want to nationalise its part (BIL)

    the European Commission is following closely but reminds that any plan (is there a plan ?) has to be approved by her (which isn't that sure and makes a quick rescue of the bank more difficult).

    also we are tuesday and we don't have the luxury of the crisises in 2008 where the political and financial managers made decisions during the weekend before the opening of the stockmarket and the result is that Dexia can be bleeding further for some days before the weekend (except if the stock is blocked by the authorities)

    you also have to know that Dexia is very dependent on overnight lending by other banks to function the next day and if you have read "too big to fail" you will remember that this can dry up in one day (or become so costly that in fact you can't lend on those terms)

    well yes, the bank could turn to the ECB but the moment this is known it will be interpreted as if the bank has lost all credibility on the inter-bank money market which will undermine even more its position

    oh, but don't worry, you can keep your money in the bank

    except as written in De standaard you don't think the Belgian state has the necessary billions to pay all the guarantees that she says she will pay out (up till 100.000 euro on every Belgian Dexia account) and Belgium has now no government and it also finds that lending money is becoming more costly every day (and failing banks are no help)

    oh and the negotiators are arguing if somebody who speaks french in a city that has no special minorityrights for the frenchspeaking people can turn to a flemish or a french judge .....

    we are a very surrealist country sometimes .....  one of the biggest banks risks to stop functioning correctly .... and a government that is in fact in power because of the lack of a new one will have to take extra-ordinary measures (luckily it doesn't have to consult the parliament before because it has asked for extra-ordinary measures for cases like this)

    and it is not only the belgian government, but also the regional governments and most of the cities and a whole set of institutions and organisations that have a lot to lose

    but don't worry, yesterday they could lend at normal tarriffs and everything is under control

    yesterday, it now seems so far away

    I only I could have taken the necessary decisions yesterday

    than I wouldn't be in that kind of trouble today

  • Dexia : Fortis remake, how bad communication can start a run on the bank

    When you say that there is no problem

    but you can't seem to solve your problems during 2 years (selling or dumping the bad parts)

    when you say that there is no crisis

    but you hold crisis meetings and topmanagement leaves without an explanation and crisismanagers are appointed

    when you say that people should be confident

    but you can't seem to give exact information that inspire even rating agencies to have some confidence

    how in the hell are you going to survive this

    and the following

    when you say during a crisis that the accounts are guaranteed by the state up till 100.000 Euro

    which means that any accounts above that should be emptied as fast as possible before it sinks and is lost and who will understand that you didn't empty your account because you are a 'loyal' client or citizen and you don't want to be held responsable (as if the people are responsable, not the managment)

    and you say that the state will only inject 5 billion Euro (which means you will be the last individual to get some money if it goes broke overnight - because it can't get any funding anymore

    and you think that you will stop a panick with that kind of communication ?

    the only result is that you lose each time some credibility untill at the moment that it really matters and you really need that credibility, you have non left and nobody believes you anymore.

    aren't they earning enough to make some important decision and to have some decent crisis communication ?

    we the people, will have to pay again for their mistakes (they will make elsewhere afterwards)

    anybody looking after KBC for the moment ? Before it is too late.

    small banks shouldn't have worldwide dreams. THey should have worldwide networks of cooperation, otherwise they are waterheads (which are leaking now).

  • update 7 finance : after the vote, who will clean up the mess

    WELCOME YOU were WITH HUNDREDS WATCHING THIS (subscribe to the feed if you want to know about anonymous-lulzsec-antisec-wikileaksor get some freeware - you never know what will be published here :) )

    In fact more than half a million people watched online the riots before the parliament yesterday. The only livesream keeping up was

    we interrupt the programs to give you the possibility to follow the unfolding events live. We will add new online live resources as they come available and are pertinent. As the European non-elected president said : these two days are the most important for Greece, for Europe and for the stability of the economic and financial system. Only is it fair that only the little working people have to pay all the costs for this debacle.

    THis is the appeal on Youtube to protest

    Follow the twitter news from Greece (english)  the vote tomorrow


    so  after the vote, the crisis has been contained - as far as the worst case scenario goes - but that doesn't mean that it will be that easy to reduce expenditure without hurting the economy and the social security too much (or even the functioning of the state an sich).

    the difference was larger than anyone has expected

    and why was the world so afraid ? Not because of the debt but what some have done with it and who has it now (without knowing it). Yes, it is the same story all over again.

    It is not said that it will come to that for the reason that the sovereign debt has been repackaged by the same players who did that with our loans (CDs). This means that for the moment nobody has any idea who owns or has how much 'greek' debt and how many domino's would be affected. Yeah, the same panic and crisis of confidence would take over the financial community as a serveral years ago.

    And than to remember that the financial crisis cost us around 2400 billion dollar while Lehman brothers only needed 100 billion to survive. And how much after that a sceptic would say, yes but jumping in the black hole is not something one wants to do with a whole continent.

    If you read too big to fall you will be astonished by the lack of information the decisionmakers had at the time, even in multibillion banks. so much blablabla about sophisticated databases and datamining and when it really matters it is proven that you don't know anything that is important at that time

    and you bet it would have repercussions around the world - eurozone or not

    the real problem is that you have a Eurozone without the necessary institutions, mandates and Eurozone fonds like the Us has for its banking sector. We have European banks who are investing all over Europe but no federal oversight and controls and rules and insurances. This means that all of this has to be constructed now in all urgency and because there is no other alternative.

    International crisis or local Greek depression, that is the international choice

    but even if this is not a revolution, the people have the right to protest and to be angry.

    Ps I always ask myself why normal newspapers can't include this kind of coverage in their online editions.... this is also news(worthy). It have to be amateurs like us to do that.

  • citibank : hackers, Public relations lies and financial losses (the cost of insecurity)

    first you lose a lot of credibility

    secondly when you lie you will not be believed next time

    third if they earn that much money, why don't they invest it in some security

    "Despite this, it has now told government officials that the accounts of 3400 customers have suffered around $2.7 million in total losses, according to the Wall Street Journal, citing sources that speculate the information could have been used in conjunction with other stolen data to get at clients' money.

    The bank has already assured customers they are not liable for any losses and begun reissuing over 200,000 cards."

    If you read that the hack was made possible by an insecure webapplication

    and you know that testing and repairing that would only cost a few thousand

    than who is more business-wise ?

  • Opel Antwerpen finally closed definitely

    I said so when it was announced

    it was clearly the intention to close it and it would be closed

    all the rest was PR, time-buying and grandstanding

    'Flanders will be saved by innovation' our politicians say

    but who is responsable for innovation policy ?  Flanders

    just as a reminder that some of the biggest innovation companies (Google, Microsoft, some pharmaceuticals) have installed their base in Wallonia recently.

    and some of our brighest minds are leaving the region looking for more understanding, support and funding

  • belgium and financial risk : the never ending negotiations about a government

    We are in negotiations about a stable government since 2007 and since than we have seen everything and every trick out of the hat of our king and his amazing cercle of intelligent advisors (otherwise we would have been deadlocked since long). THis is one chess player (the institutions).

    At the other side of the chess table is De Wever who incorporates by himself the party that is for the moment the biggest of Flanders (and demographically of Belgium). He grew as a partner of one of the traditional parties (christen-democrats) who needed at the time a few percentages to take the majority of the liberal-social democrat alliance. Leterme succeeded but to form a government in 2007 he needed a compromise with the french speaking parties. As for these democratic but 'at heart independentist' movements becoming part of the NVA of De Wever no agreement will go far enough, the partnership broke and NVA went into opposition.

    De Wever found and filled the gaping political gap between the extremist Vlaams Belang that was losing credibility after 20 years in populist opposition ( lesson Wilders learned in Holland - you can't stay in opposition for the rest of your political life, you need power and influence) and the CD&V that in the enormously fast modernizing flemish culture and habitat was losing its old christian traditional no-troublemakers appeal. In fact he synthesized a clear language with popular traditional rightwing but smoothed over with social accents proposals and because liberals and social-democrats are still - after so many years of congresses and papers and blablabla - searching for their soul he became the central figure of the campaign and won the election. The liberal rightwing populist De Decker paid the big prize for a personalised but very hard mediaconcentrated 'every power is corrupted' campaign while he was having the biggest internal problems with himself and his party.

    So he won and at the other end of the language frontier the clear winner was the socialist party who were in the government but never lost their opposition language and policies (playing to win on both ends). The president of the PS clearly wanted to become the first french-speaking prime minister and was ready to pay a big prize for that (proposing the biggest reform of the state since the first one in the 1960's) but in the end De Wever rejected the proposals after playing a game he already played before. Never say yes, never say no and stay always at the sidelines.

    It will be clear that now he will have to play the central role in a new game and you can't be sure that any of his partners in these negotiations are willing to make it easy for him. You can't burn and trash the biggest hope of your biggest opponent and find him as a cooperating friend afterward. Politics is personal and the way bulldozer De Wever is making enemies - even if he says he doesn't care - doesn't make it easy for him. Even if he gets the liberals in the game, he is still confronted with two additional problems. He will have succeeded in throwing out the greens but the french liberals have aside from their internal divisions and powerstruggle a big problem with their french nationalist FDF who may have lost most of its influence if the agreement about BHV (french speaking people in flanders may now vote for FDF in the Brussels region) would have gone through. The electoral difference between the liberal PRL and the PS in the Brussels Region could also change in favor of the PS with as a result that the PRL would nowhere be the first party (possible leading to an even bigger revolt inside the PRL). The flemish liberals OpenVLD have a new young willing president who brought down the government and even for some time the city council of the biggest city of flanders. This kind of tactic in which one pulls immediately the plug if one doesn't agree and doesn't want to negotiate anymore was unseen untill now.

    One can't foresee the stability of a government based upon the majority or the partners of the majority. Sometimes governments that are doomed to fail just continue to hold on and governments with large majorities can't get their act together.

    It will be difficult for the following reason one has to understand.

    The taxes are federal. The Belgian debt is federal. The social security is federal. As is police, army, justice and few other things. Most of the rest has been regionalized and the regional entities receive funding from the federal government based upon a number of charasteristics agreed upon some time ago. The Walloon region received more because of the unemployment and the french speaking community received more because it had more pupils.

    The proposal of NVA De Wever is not to abolish Belgium but to give the possibility to the region to level 50% of all taxes (personal and business) themselves. The rest would be distributed and used by the federal government that would also be stripped of most of the other competencies and would only be responsable for the army, social security and the debt.

    But say some politicians : how is the federal government going to pay the debt ? How is it going to pay for the soial security and the securityservices with half the money ?

    Everybody knows this can't be done and than the second phase of the plan of De Wever is to regionalise them and to have a Belgium - only in name.

    The only problem is that we are not alone. If Belgium  would have no substantial debt and attacking Belgium debt wouldn't be a nice political signal to send from the anglo-saxon investors to the European Union (with a Belgian as president) that they don't like all that reglementation coming their way, who would care ?

    So there is talk about a government of national urgency - but with NVA not in the government but supporting it from the sidelines which doesn't promise much good. Or elections but it is not clear that those will change the political fronts that have been formed as in Flanders nobody has really countered De Wever and the media is still in full honeymoon with this phenomenon and in Wallonia the PS and Di Rupo have well managed and subverted the burning out process and attacks.

    The attack on the obligations follow the following scheme.

    First there are the reports (follow Bloomberg as echo chamber)

    Than the riskpercentage on the debt go up a bit

    Than there are rumors about lowering the grade giving by one of the big 3

    Than the riskpercentage on the debt take a jump

    Meanwhile more press and reports about the crisis of confidence

    Than the rating goes down

    and than everything goes very fast and it is over and down with in a few weeks

    Once you are in this stage there is very little you can do as a small individual country on your own.

    the only thing that one can do to stop this from happening is forming a socio-economic government with the NVA in the government and to prepare a complete review of the constitution of our country that is acceptable and that has no big risks for the future generations (leaving them with an enormous debt).

  • published full arrest Lernaut and Hauspie (1800 pages)

    The judge didn't want to read the full 1800 pages aloud - which he should have done if he would have followed those ever older and more stupid getting judicial rules and said the full arrest would be published online

    It has been published online and we have re-published it at