We are in negotiations about a stable government since 2007 and since than we have seen everything and every trick out of the hat of our king and his amazing cercle of intelligent advisors (otherwise we would have been deadlocked since long). THis is one chess player (the institutions).
At the other side of the chess table is De Wever who incorporates by himself the party that is for the moment the biggest of Flanders (and demographically of Belgium). He grew as a partner of one of the traditional parties (christen-democrats) who needed at the time a few percentages to take the majority of the liberal-social democrat alliance. Leterme succeeded but to form a government in 2007 he needed a compromise with the french speaking parties. As for these democratic but 'at heart independentist' movements becoming part of the NVA of De Wever no agreement will go far enough, the partnership broke and NVA went into opposition.
De Wever found and filled the gaping political gap between the extremist Vlaams Belang that was losing credibility after 20 years in populist opposition ( lesson Wilders learned in Holland - you can't stay in opposition for the rest of your political life, you need power and influence) and the CD&V that in the enormously fast modernizing flemish culture and habitat was losing its old christian traditional no-troublemakers appeal. In fact he synthesized a clear language with popular traditional rightwing but smoothed over with social accents proposals and because liberals and social-democrats are still - after so many years of congresses and papers and blablabla - searching for their soul he became the central figure of the campaign and won the election. The liberal rightwing populist De Decker paid the big prize for a personalised but very hard mediaconcentrated 'every power is corrupted' campaign while he was having the biggest internal problems with himself and his party.
So he won and at the other end of the language frontier the clear winner was the socialist party who were in the government but never lost their opposition language and policies (playing to win on both ends). The president of the PS clearly wanted to become the first french-speaking prime minister and was ready to pay a big prize for that (proposing the biggest reform of the state since the first one in the 1960's) but in the end De Wever rejected the proposals after playing a game he already played before. Never say yes, never say no and stay always at the sidelines.
It will be clear that now he will have to play the central role in a new game and you can't be sure that any of his partners in these negotiations are willing to make it easy for him. You can't burn and trash the biggest hope of your biggest opponent and find him as a cooperating friend afterward. Politics is personal and the way bulldozer De Wever is making enemies - even if he says he doesn't care - doesn't make it easy for him. Even if he gets the liberals in the game, he is still confronted with two additional problems. He will have succeeded in throwing out the greens but the french liberals have aside from their internal divisions and powerstruggle a big problem with their french nationalist FDF who may have lost most of its influence if the agreement about BHV (french speaking people in flanders may now vote for FDF in the Brussels region) would have gone through. The electoral difference between the liberal PRL and the PS in the Brussels Region could also change in favor of the PS with as a result that the PRL would nowhere be the first party (possible leading to an even bigger revolt inside the PRL). The flemish liberals OpenVLD have a new young willing president who brought down the government and even for some time the city council of the biggest city of flanders. This kind of tactic in which one pulls immediately the plug if one doesn't agree and doesn't want to negotiate anymore was unseen untill now.
One can't foresee the stability of a government based upon the majority or the partners of the majority. Sometimes governments that are doomed to fail just continue to hold on and governments with large majorities can't get their act together.
It will be difficult for the following reason one has to understand.
The taxes are federal. The Belgian debt is federal. The social security is federal. As is police, army, justice and few other things. Most of the rest has been regionalized and the regional entities receive funding from the federal government based upon a number of charasteristics agreed upon some time ago. The Walloon region received more because of the unemployment and the french speaking community received more because it had more pupils.
The proposal of NVA De Wever is not to abolish Belgium but to give the possibility to the region to level 50% of all taxes (personal and business) themselves. The rest would be distributed and used by the federal government that would also be stripped of most of the other competencies and would only be responsable for the army, social security and the debt.
But say some politicians : how is the federal government going to pay the debt ? How is it going to pay for the soial security and the securityservices with half the money ?
Everybody knows this can't be done and than the second phase of the plan of De Wever is to regionalise them and to have a Belgium - only in name.
The only problem is that we are not alone. If Belgium would have no substantial debt and attacking Belgium debt wouldn't be a nice political signal to send from the anglo-saxon investors to the European Union (with a Belgian as president) that they don't like all that reglementation coming their way, who would care ?
So there is talk about a government of national urgency - but with NVA not in the government but supporting it from the sidelines which doesn't promise much good. Or elections but it is not clear that those will change the political fronts that have been formed as in Flanders nobody has really countered De Wever and the media is still in full honeymoon with this phenomenon and in Wallonia the PS and Di Rupo have well managed and subverted the burning out process and attacks.
The attack on the obligations follow the following scheme.
First there are the reports (follow Bloomberg as echo chamber)
Than the riskpercentage on the debt go up a bit
Than there are rumors about lowering the grade giving by one of the big 3
Than the riskpercentage on the debt take a jump
Meanwhile more press and reports about the crisis of confidence
Than the rating goes down
and than everything goes very fast and it is over and down with in a few weeks
Once you are in this stage there is very little you can do as a small individual country on your own.
the only thing that one can do to stop this from happening is forming a socio-economic government with the NVA in the government and to prepare a complete review of the constitution of our country that is acceptable and that has no big risks for the future generations (leaving them with an enormous debt).