every day there are between 10 and 30 battles being fought out with the main media attention at the totally destroyed Donetsk airport (which is internationally and strategically important to hold on to or to conquer)
afterwards therussians will arrive here
the last weeks the new troops and trucks and tanks kept coming from the russian side and every day there were one to several attempts to take the Donetsk airport (which is really essential if the russianrebel region is going to survive (even as a gangster state for smugglers)). This is an international airport and not a local or regional airport as some think.
so even if the defenders of the airport are called CYBORGS by the Russians because they are holding off so many attacks (although some groups of soldiers have surrendered the last days)
it looks like a film like Stalingrad or some survival movie (surrealistic)
But sending a message to the kremlin is sometimes necessary
there is no ceasefire, they never stopped firing, the big russian invasion and the real war was set for a later date, that is all and Ukraine has got some more time preparing for it if somebody is willing to help them
and if he ups the ante, Ukraine can also
the last city that is still defended by some Kurdish fighters who know they are going to die against the tanks and artillery of the ISIS with their thousands of experienced battle hardened fighters
once in a while there is an Alliance fighterjet coming over doing many things but no fighting
while at the Turkish border tanks are standing by of the second biggest army of Europe that used to kill as many Kurdish fighters as possible but now are watching how those brave Kurdish fighters are being slaughtered
so people grow angry
at tanks that don't shoot and planes that don't bombard (except with words that are empty of any meaning)
I don't think the Kurdish militants and families will continue to keep silent because in their despair the only thing they can do is make sure that every European capital knows that they are there and they are watching and they are desperate for their families and communities still in Iraq and Syria
just as in Ukraine
sometimes I think that the future générations of leaders will have less problems with using war and military strikes because they will remember that if you don't use it now and than it will all become such a mess that you need to set up such big interventions that it will take years and ask billions of your budgets to get the things Under control again
it is not what you see that is important it is what it is used for
or you thought that only al qaida did online recruiting ?
by the Ukraine population to help their volunteers and soldiers
cost is about 35.000$ for a Professional one that stays some hours in the air (instead of the 30 minutes for the models you can buy in the shop)
and the controllers
meanwhile the Ukraine army has also shot down some Russian drones and some private ones that looked as if they came from the russianrebels
source (no joke) http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-news-from-elsewhere-29507775
this is a perfect example of
* Citizen journalism - reporting and filming events that are happening before their eyes (passing missiles)
* investigative journalism - checking all these videos with other resources to combine them into one convincing package
* new technologies like geolocation and Google street to exactly know where the videos were taken
why the Russians lost the donbass in #ukraine but won back enough to hold two major cities and what is next
Youi see two things very clearly
* why the Russian invasion the 27th of august was the last chance for the Russians to intervene and why it was a gamechanger
* why the truce is not a truce and on the ground there is still daily fighting and why that is (because the Russians want to reinforce their corridor to the sea (and later on to Mariupol that they need to have a viable 'frozen conflictzone)
so expect more fighting
but the reason the Ukranian President chose the Truce is not for the pleas or beautiful eyes of Merkel but because his country was the 27th of August to ready to fight the invasion force of 20K to 40k Russian military standing ready at the frontier to invade whenever Putin thought he had the chance. It would mean that he would have to mobilize the whole army (changing a civil country to a military country and a peace economy in a war economy).
remember that at the start of the second world war neither the US, UK or Russia were ready to confront the German war machine (which was surely the case for the countries that were run over). They all had decided that once they have declared war or were faced with the real possiblity of war they needed at least 2 years to produce enough arms, train and transport enough soldiers and collect enough knowledge and intelligence before having any chance of winning or even surviving in a direct confrontation). The first objective in 1940 (UK), in 1941 (Russia) and 1942 was just holding on and not surrendering and saving as many troops and material as was possible and meanwhile mobilizing every aspect of the civil life and economy for the war, transforming everything.
He didn't want to do that now and he knows it will take one to two years before the army is ready to go on the real offensive and maybe at that time Russia is so weakened it will seek a quick way out, who knows
and if you look at the political calender you will see that by that time the US will have another president and if President Putin is really so stupid to continue to provoke the US and NATO at the border and in the air and with a very strange mix of extreme Russian or Slavic nationalism, worshipping of Stalin and the Orthodox Church and military operations or exercises or funding or training of 'russian rebels' Inside other countries
than in two years time it will all be totally different
just like two years made a whole lot of difference during WWII for the UK, the US and Russia when they started their wars or were attacked
and by that time the whole of Ukraine is united and mobilized to reconquer the Crimea and the Donbass and has elected officials over the 90% of her territory that will be nationalistic, anti-russian and anticommunist.
and by that time the police, secret service and military will be silently be cleaned of people that are traitors or not willing to fight Russia and they will be replaced or bypassed by people who will be preparing for a war if necessary and will not trust Russia and will not want to work with or for Russia
meanwhile the US will need 2 years to clean up the ISIS mess
Russia can wait for the moment as long as it doesn't provoke a NATO member or starts a new offensive while new US military hardware and soldiers are arriving at our new Eastern front
hundreds of Russian military trucks and tanks are crossing the border
the Russians have also consolidated about 100 km of Ukranian border for free passage
troops are being refreshed by being sent back to Russia while new fresh troops are arriving in Russia (in time for the weekend or join the other troops next week)
the Russians are also digging in and extending their grasp of the territory
and why next week
not because of the sanctions but because Putin is mad as hell about this and unpredictable as he is may be capable to launch new attacks and operations in the weekend or next week to put pressure on the US and Ukraine
the spoiler who is not invited to the party ....
why would you need war if you can continue to advance and have your strategic goals accomplished during a truce ?
what will the next one be ?
Mariupol during the weekend maybe ?
Everything is looking this way
you have sometimes just to look at a map like a military planner or an imperialistic ruler would look to see the obvious
Estonia can only be the next victim because it has a long border with Russia and if you take or destabilize Estonia you can have enough influence on Latvia and maybe Lithuania. This is why Estonia is quickly becoming the next point of attention (and of preparation in case if something starts happening). You also have to consider that they have a big minority of Russians and that there are already patriotic Russian seperatists active for a long time.
Ukraine : well if Ukraine is integrated with the European Union and eventially NATO the map totally changes. Have a good look at the map and imagine Ukraine not being part of or associated with Russia. Bielarus would be more or less surrounded by western democracies and it would only be a matter of time untill it would feel that influence and at least would start to become more democratic and pluralistic and market orientated.
Moldavia and transdistrn would be much more difficult to hold on to if Ukraine became totally European and eventually associated with NATO. The rogue public would be a Russiancontrolled island surrounded by NATO or westernized armies.
and if you look at the black sea - at a moment in which Russia is investing billions in warships and started a war over Crimea you see that the strategic advantage will change if the coastline of Ukraine falls into the hands of the prorussian militias and the russian army in Ukraine.
You also see why the ex Yougoslavian republics will become member of the European Union in the end
and this makes (except for Norwegen) the map more or less complete
and Moscow is not so far from the Ukranian border making the Russian first strike impossible or much too dangerous even if Russian generals have placed it on the table now
this is the big endgame the global strategy all the rest is day-to-day politics and news
moldavia will not join NATO for the moment but as Putin is doing very hard his best to scare everybody, this is the map of NATO members and candidates and those who are not a member yet
My note : Alaska, Canada - with the melting Ice and the warming of the earth it has gone another way on the diplomatic military front where the cold war in setting in again and relations are becoming colder by the week
look at this map, military it is all about location, location and location
with the modern warfare and electronic monitoring possibilities you have here a very strategic position
"Reports from the area of the Anti-Terrorist Operation, have repeatedly been mentioning the “Smerch” Multiple Rocket Launch System (MLRS) by Russian forces in Ukraine. In a report by Human Rights Watch on September 1, observers confirmed finding remnants of 300 mm Smerch rockets and cluster munitions delivered by 220 mm Uragan rockets.
Currently, Ukrainian soldiers say Russian forces are setting up Smerch launch rocket systems in Novoazovsk and aiming them at the city of Mariupol, the capital of the Donetsk region"
“This is the Smerch Multiple Rocket Launch System. The most horrific weapon on earth after nuclear weapons. Just in 40 seconds the Smerch can launch all of its 12 rockets. Its 300mm (11.8 inch)-diameter rockets can reach targets up to 90 km (56 miles) away and destroy everything alive in an area of 67 hectares (166 acres).
“The Smerch was adopted by the Soviet Army back in 1987, but even now no [non-nuclear] weapon can equal its destructive power…”
and another one
so it appears that people are being trained and prepared to start movements and probably take-overs of buildings in both countries - this is what the rumours and some bits of information say
well better now than too late
what was the most important tool to defend their occupied buildings and block roads
so get all dumps of tyres to burn the stuff (makes electricity) or export it far away
otherwise you may see them here like these - remember them ?
the two biggest social networks that Ukranians use are Russians which means that all their data is on Russian servers and in Russian hands and falls under Russian laws and is now controlled by friends of Putin who have ousted directors who were too independent
imagine that the Russians attack Mariupol this weekend saying that Ukr broke the truce - even if that is totally false
imagine that the NATO troops are in Ukraine and that there is an attack on Mariupol or tension on the border with Transdistnr or whatever
what will they do
sit back and watch ?
and what if a Russian missile is fired at NATO troops ?
a week of tension because the least thing we can say about Putin is that he is predictable :)
information like this has been going around but is now more insisting and has to be linked to information about troop movements of the Russian Troops in Transdistnr