risk - Page 4

  • Run on Dexia bank was underway - and why trust didn't come home

    update : after the coordinated action by the central banks the stock market seems to rebound. Thanks to the coordinated nature of it and the trust it inspires.

    According to DE Morgen individuals are getting their money out of the bank - even after the new 'powerful people' were sent to the top of the bank to set things in motion and salvage the bank.

    According to the stock market some investors are thinking the same thing

    bo03

    and the European Union is doing nothing while the crisis is worsening day after day. Why do we have an European Union if there is now an Union to head off the greatest financial crisis in 80 years ? People don't have the feeling that the European union is protecting and helping them and if the European Union is not there for the people, why do we have one in the first place ? Next year there are European Elections..... Try to explain this bloodbath several months later and get the sympathy to vote pro-European. And the last thing we need is destabilised European federal institutions because they have lost popular credibility because people can't trust them to do the right things. It is in times of war and hardship that you find your real friends is a popular saying.

    Back to trust. The government thought that by appointing those two men, people would have enough trust to keep their money and stock in the bank. The problem is that the french banker is very trusted by Sarkozy and came from the bank that took over Fortis, so people are thinking that he is there to prepare the nationalisation or sell off to France or breakup of the bank and as our political leaders first said that Fortis couldn't go broke but now are saying that over and over again in all the media that Fortis was in fact on the brink, people just think that Dexia is also on the brink. And that even if they say that Dexia won't go broke, people don't believe it because they said that about Fortis also. Take with that a high level of activity on the bulletin boards on the internet and you have all the ingredients of a disaster in the waiting.

    And Jean-Luc Dehaene. He should give people trust, you think. This is what our prime Minister thought and tries to sell. Well sorry but he is the wrong guy in the wrong place at the wrong time. Not because he is not smart. But because he has worked in the private sector before. Inbev is being cited but that is de facto being run by Brasilians. And something that is not mentioned so much but that is still on the minds of many small investors in Belgium : Lernaut and Hauspie, which by accident are in Belgium for their trial. Luckily the court didn't seem to find it necessary to call Jean Luc Dehaene as a witness. Do you really have to place someone with that background on a bank that needs the image of stability and continuity ?

    Or just tell is as it is. Jean Luc Dehaene is being placed there as ex prime minister to assure the Belgian interests in the proxy battle between France and Belgium over the control of this ship heading to the ice clip.

    I am hearing it over and over again. Crisis communication is in a real crisis now and turns out to be just as the lending/credit crisis to be No communication. But in fact to break this cycle you need trust and that trust you can only get by transparancy and that you can only get if you trust the numbers and the internal and external controls and all that have been proven to be insufficient, lies or non existant. If they don't attack that problem - even if it can have short term dramatic effects - they won't survive in the long term.

    A marriage only survives because there is enough trust in the intentions of the other party and in the probability that he or she will stay and make some efforts that make it worthwhile. Trust is not different.

    And online companies should look with big eyes to what is happening and learn a lot and invest much more in security because a security problem now in their infrastructure can have the same effects in the present climate.

  • CEPS study on leverage vulnerability of European Banks makes Fortune

    Europe: The new Wall Street?

    "The European banks have big deposit bases, so the funding pressures they face won't be as acute as the ones that swept down Wall Street last month."

    but  

    "Indeed, the big European banks' leverage ratios - reflecting the amount of debt they carry for each dollar of equity held by their shareowners - rival those of the big U.S. investment banks"

    and a very interesting article indeed but if the calculation is right, why is the leverage ratio of BNP not that bigger than that of Fortis if it is one of the biggest and most solid trustworthy banks around ? Because there is no run on the bank and is has enough funds in the bank. The last being the reason no one is lending money to other banks. You may not know when you need it yourself. From Free trade to NO trade.

    barr_EUROBANKS_graphic

  • Iceland crisis : internetbank Icesave stopped ?

    Icesave  the internetbank from Landsbanki has stopped functioning. You can't transfer any money anymore. The state Iceland says it will guarantee the assets. Some 300.000 brits were clients of them. They also lured many people of which Belgians and Dutch with their 5.25% accounts.

    In some other publications the bank says that people can get their money if they want. The National Bank of Iceland guarantees the assets untill 20.887 euro. The Dutch State guarantees the rest untill 40.000 Euro's for 90%. No news for the Belgian clients.

    Somebody said somewhere that it wouldn't matter where the banks were located when they worked on the internet. It was up to you to find the best price and make your choice. It now seems that this was too simplistic and that every turns out to be focused on Location, Location and Location. Because a national government will only guarantee first and almost its own citizens, banks and firms. And the rest seems to depend on a case by case basis.

    The absence of a coordinated international reaction in our globalized internetted financial-industrial networks has all the potential of disaster. For the moment there are nor the instruments, nor the political will to stop this panick (with the lenders/banks and with the people/clients) on a global basis. What does it care if it are banks in Iceland, Turkye, Greece or wherever that are failling if they have customers all over the world, thanks to internetbanking ? Panick and fear can spread very quickly, accelerated by the internet and the instant news headlines.

  • Iceland crisis : your belgian money on one of their banks

    Zijn de Belgische spaarders beschermd in geval er toch problemen zouden zijn met Kaupthing?
    Kaupthing Bank Belgium is een filiaal van Kaupthing Bank Luxembourg S.A.. Daarom genieten de Belgische spaarders van de bescherming van de Luxemburgse instellingen (20.000 EUR per spaarder, zoals in België). De "deposit to loan" ratio van Kaupthing Bank Luxembourg S.A. draait momenteel rond de 70%. Kaupthing Luxemburg heeft daarenboven tijdelijk de omvang van haar balans verlaagd om zo de storm gemakkelijker te kunnen doorstaan.

    Voor meer informatie:

    Daniel Jourde, PR Kaupthing Bank Belgium, tel + 32 475 35 02 56

    There is untill now no declaration of the Belgian government about extending that guarantee as is the case with pure Belgian banks. If we interpret the declarations of the prime minister of Iceland it is each country on its own and each foreign subsidiary of a bank from Iceland for itself and all Icelanders for Iceland.

  • Iceland how a dwarf wanted to become a big dwarf and is dwarfed again

    Three Icelandic Banks among top 300 in World
    Kaupthing bank is now number 177 in a list of the world’s biggest banks. According to mbl.is, the international magazine The Banker compiled a list of the largest banks in the world and the Icelandic banks are on their way up. Last year Kaupthing bank was number 211. The ranking is based on shareholder’s capital at the end of year 2005. Landsbanki came in at number 236 and Glitnir number 300.
    The top seven banks in the world are:
    1. Citigroup 
    2. HSBC
    3. Bank of America
    4. JP Morgan Chase & Co
    5. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Japan
    6. Crédit Agricole Groupe 
    7. Royal Bank of Scotland
    the same can be said of Fortis

  • Iceland Crisis : Kaupthing Edge on the edge ?

    Kaupthing Edge is a pan-European retail deposit taking brand. The purpose of the brand is to diversify liabilities on the Kaupthing balance sheet by currency, customer type (personal/retail) and country. Kaupthing Edge offers two deposit products: a savings account and a fixed term deposit account. Both are straightforward high-interest products. In Belgium customers can choose a third product which is a current account. Kaupthing Edge savings and fixed term deposit accounts are managed over the Internet with the support of telephony call centres.

    Kaupthing Edge is available in eleven countries in Europe:

  • Iceland crisis : Belgian ICT contract with Cegeka still valid ?

    Leuven, February 20

    source

    th , 2008 – Kaupthing Bank Belgium entered into a contract with ICT services provider Cegeka for the complete outsourcing of its ICT environment. Next to the management and the further expansion of the infrastructure, Cegeka also attends to the operational management of the bank applications. Furthermore, Cegeka guarantees the hosting and security of the bank’s ICT equipment and network, and the end user support through a central service desk.

  • Robeco Bank Belgium to be sold ?

    "Iceland, Republic of (Press Release) October 20, 2007 -- Reykjavik, Iceland--October 21st 2007--Kaupthing Bank Luxembourg S.A., a subsidiary of Kaupthing Bank hf., has signed an agreement by which Kaupthing Bank Luxembourg S.A. purchases Robeco Bank Belgium"

    According to the prime minister of Iceland all foreign assets need to be sold by the banks of his country because otherwise they could become the first country to be insolvent due to the present financial crisis.

    Luckily Belgium is in the Eurozone.

  • The CEPS report was right in the end

    The CEPS report the beginning of the end game is a report that has every merit of becoming a historical document. It said a few days before the actual crisis that the European Financial system is in danger because some banks aren't so solvable as it looks at first sight (and mentioned Fortis, KBC and Dexia, Argentia in Belgium) and that there would be no coordinated financial rescue operation on the scale of the US in the EU because there were no such instruments, laws or even political will to do so.

    At first sight our own prime minister proved the study to be wrong when we found solutions for the very difficult problems of Fortis, that has now be sold (but that is better than going broke because too many people took their money away and too few banks wanted to lend money to let Fortis give them that money back while more state intervention just convinced more people to take their money or sell their shares, which is a negative spiral that will take months/years to forget).

    But even than the splitting of Fortis on friday last week in a dutch and belgian part just showed that even in the most difficult times there is no such solidarity. The dutch minister of Finance didn't only announce the deal, he also said that he wanted to save the best safe part from the very bad part (the Belgian one) and even more he said it with a smile like "If I could say what I know, you would agree with me. Just trust me, you don't want to know what I know". That was body language that was even much clearer in a TV/youtube age than the actual words. So after this incident the Belgian government had no choice but to sell Fortis because this incident would in the present conditions have sunk Fortis on the stockmarket on monday. You can imagine that the Belgians were very happy with this behaviour from the dutch.

    And so even in the worst and most dangerous of times the European leaders can't even agree on a common investment fund for falling banks (but for another GPS system nobody needs they had). And another proof in the pudding is that the country of Iceland is on the brink of a national disaster as their banks represent more investments than their BNP and are feeling the heat from the credit/financial crisis. And in times of crisis, you don't turn to such a bickering EU but to yourself and f... all the rest. (quote from Bloomberg.com : "Oct. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Icelandic Prime Minister Geir Haarde guaranteed domestic bank deposits and gave regulators the power to take over bank assets and obtain funds from lenders that may become ``inoperable.'' ``It is every country for itself,'' Haarde told a press conference in Reykjavik late yesterday. ``We want to save what can be saved.'' "

    There are other European banks that are also much bigger than the BNP of their country, so it is only an European, international or just regional approach (like the french-luxembourg-belgian one around Dexia) that will solve the problem, even if the last one is only the last resort.

    We are living very interesting times indeed

  • Bos/trichet zeggen niet dat Fortis failliet zou gaan

    Dit is wat hij werkelijk zei, de rest is journalistieke interpretatie die haar schade reeds heeft aangericht. Misschien moeten niet alleen commentatoren hun hoofd weer koel houden en niet denken dat ze in een film of proces bezig zijn maar met echte economie en echt geld en echte mensen.

    Dit bewijst ook waarom media links moeten leggen naar de documenten waar ze zich op baseren omdat je anders niet weet of je te maken hebt met een foute interpretatie of niet. Het is een schande dat zogenaamde degelijke online media deze vorm van basisverificatie nog steeds niet ter beschikking stellen van hun lezers. Alsof hun lezers zomaar alles moeten geloven wat ze zeggen. Beter niet.

    "Er is gesproken over verschillende manieren waarop er weer rust in deze situatie zou kunnen worden gebracht. Gedurende het weekeinde bleek daarbij ook dat er op heel korte termijn geen solide private oplossing voorhanden was in de vorm van een overname door een strategische partner. Daarbij speelde ook een grote rol dat een faillissement van Fortis mondiale gevolgen zou kunnen hebben op de toch al zeer zorgelijke situatie op de financiële markten. De president van de Europese Centrale Bank heeft dit onder meer onder de aandacht gebracht" bron

    De essentie van wat Bos zegt is dat er weer rust moest worden gebracht, niet dat de bank op de rand van het bankroet zat. Wel dat ze een partner nodig had om eventuele nieuwe speculatiegolven te overleven, maar dergelijke golven overleeft zelfs de grootste bank niet vandaag de dag. Trichet heeft ook niet gezegd dat Fortis zou failliet gaan, maar wel dat als het zou gebeuren dit mondiale gevolgen zou hebben. Wel het is niet omdat iemand zegt dat een oorlog met Iran mondiale gevolgen zou hebben dat er daarom ook oorlog zal uitbreken. Dit is een normale behandeling van de risico's en mogelijke scenario's om af te wegen of men iets zou doen en hoe belangrijk de aktie moet zijn. Als, dan en indien niet, dan en dus etc...

    Het wordt in de huidige context wel erg risicovol om verklaringen af te leggen over deze zaken zonder 10 keer uw woorden te herbekijken en zonder ze ook maar enige duiding te geven om er zeker van te zijn dat ze opnieuw geïnterpreteerd en vervormd worden.

  • Fortis needs a big cleanup

    They kept an investingfund out their balance sheets. Now they would need to write it off for 500 million Euro's.

    Ook in het geval van Fortis konden beleggers niet zien welke risico’s de bank liep met het in 1999 opgerichte fonds. Analisten van SNS en Bank De Groof denken dat Fortis als gevolg van de kredietcrisis op Scaldis een verlies van 500 miljoen euro moet nemen  source

  • Contextual advertising : banking joke (Fortis/ING)

    Here today, where tomorrow ? (in another context )

    ssl keys_03 Oct. 02 11.22

  • and if I were now to hack a financial news site

    and I would inject a news headline that a bank would need money

    or I would change a declaration of a press officer from 'we don't need extra money' in 'we do need extra money'

    and if people wouldn't doublecheck (which they seem to have forgotten)

    what would the effect be today ?

    - that is why security can be so important - it guarantees also the integrity of information especially in times like these when everybody is looking for the most uptodate and correct information in a very very volatile situation

  • ofwel is een nieuwssite uptodate of ze is gevaarlijk

    Indien ik mij voor mijn financieel nieuws vandaag zou concentreren op De Morgen dat zag ik om 10.55 dit

     

    ssl keys_02 Sep. 30 10.53

     

    Indien ik echter http://www.detijd.be zou volgen dan heb ik dit

    ssl keys_03 Sep. 30 10.54

    In het Engels zeggen ze 'If you can't stand the heat, don't stay in the kitchen' Met andere woorden als je uptominute headline nieuws wilt geven - of die indruk wilt creeëren - in een uiterst snelle nieuwscycle en waar het nieuws elk uur er totaal anders kan uit zien, met soms enorme gevolgen voor de indruk die wordt gecreeërd dan moet je daar de resources voor hebben.

    Het is natuurlijk ook de taak van een cybercrisiscommunication team binnen de bank om vanaf dat dergelijke titels achterhaald zijn ze zoveel zo snel als mogelijk te laten corrigeren en de belangrijkste redacties en persburelen dit zeker te laten doen, waarna de rest wel zal moeten volgen.

  • De Tijd begint commentaren te wissen bij bankenartikels

    Het is misschien beter om geen commentaren meer te plaatsen voor het moment aangezien alle informatie toch gedubbelchecked moet worden en al de rest speculatie en theorie is. De zaken evolueren van uur tot uur en niemand heeft enig idee wat de volgende stormloop zal zijn.

    een vb

    • Van mij zijn er gisteren ook 2 reacties gewist, hoewel daar zeker geen beledigingen, schuttingtaal of dergelijke instonden. Alleen een beetje bedenkingen bij de manier van handelen van onze politici... of mag dit ook al niet meer? Geplaatst door asterix op 27 september 2008 om 14:09 |
  • US economic rescue plan : the documents you need to read

    CNNMoney.com: "The federal government would provide as much as $700 billion in a far-reaching plan to rescue the nation's troubled financial system, according to a draft of the proposed bill obtained by CNN. The legislation is still being negotiated and elements of the bill could still change. The core of the bill is based on Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's request for authority to purchase troubled assets from financial institutions so banks can resume lending and so the credit markets, now virtually frozen, can begin to operate more normally."

    source bespacific

  • Belsec and the European financial meltdown since 24/07

    24/07 Rumors and massive speculation against Fortis, Dexia

    22/09 CEPS Study about the risks of European Banks

    24/09 Reactions on the blogs on the study (even Wall Street Journal)

    25/09 Time for governments and central banks to react

    26/09 Bloomberg becomes Doomberg, time to act

    26/09 Once celebrated now a figure of a bad past

    28/09 the volume of the speculation

    28/09 Fortis Gone, who is next ?

    29/09 Fortis saved for now, some political questions

    29/09 Dexia is next it seems

     

    what do Dexia and Fortis have in common ?

    A communication in crisis instead of crisis communication. Identically the same mistakes, the same responses, the same strategy ? Did they go to the same school or follow the same books and forgot also to read new books ?

  • After Foris, Dexia is feeling a rumor attack with consequences

    http://www.tijd.be/beurzen/60114920 

    The rumor mongering has to stop somewhere.

    Time for other banks to get cyber response teams together.

  • Fortis saved for now, serious political questions remain for our financial future

    http://www.tijd.be/beurzen/60011766?ret=quote

    Some other questions while very low trading gets the course of Fortis very slowly up, just as if everybody is awaiting the details of the plan and the analyses of the investment houses.

    First Lippens is out and so is his Code of Conduct that was a voluntary CEO code that would guarantee many things, but most of all that there would be no new laws for oversight and controls and limitations of the power of the Autocratic CEO. Time to send this to the dustbin. Laws and official controlling institutions are needed no halfbaked voluntary rules.

    Second big failure is the official Belgian institutes that needed to control the banks and intervene when there would be a problem with their solvability. They have lost all of their credibility as they just published general re-assuring news bulletin untill friday afternoon. By evening it was clear that there was a big problem and that dramatic action was needed. But they should have intervened much earlier. Period.

    Third big failure is the communication department of Fortis - and a lesson to be learned for any other firm or institution that can be destabilized by internet news or rumors. You will need to invest in cyber crisis communication or your communication will be in crisis on the cyberworld.

    Fourth everything needs to go much faster now so it is quite extra-ordinary that 3 countries, central banks and financial regulators together with the European Commission and Central Banks could pull this off in less than 48 hours. And seem to succeed also. Just to think of it that if Leterme had followed the N-VA last week our country would not only be in institutional crisis but the government wouldn't have the necessary powers to intervene and Fortis would have gone bust throwing the country also in a financial and economic meltdown. Makes you think about the responsability of some people and appreciate some others....

    Fifth the newspapers and online versions of trustworthy and important media need to build a Berlin Wall between their articles and the comments of others, often anonymous or bogus. It should be clear to others that one part of the site is their controlled own news-gathering with blogs and updates or selected reactions and another part is the playground of commentators that isn't to be trusted as much. The biggest problem is that because of legal responsabilities you can't filter comments because if you do, you can be held responsable for some comments. This is not the case if you don't filter. The law should seek some new rules that would make it necessary to filter and control comments without giving the possibility of huge lawsuits if you didn't get every insult out of your forums.

    Six what the hell were those bankers doing ? I grew up with this bank, giving as a young boy every week a few francs for my account and later on for my account to buy a house when I got married (I eventually did so, still am and happily :) ). They have learnt a whole generation to be careful and set some money aside and not to do stupid things if you didn't have the money and they did this ? It shows that there needs to be more oversight and controls and maybe banks for the people don't have to do deals all over the world investing in all kinds of junk they even don't fully understand. There should be banks by the people, for the people and with the people. Old fashioned but in these times a very solid business case.

    btw risk calculation and risk books may go to the dustbin, it is risky to calculate risk in strict mathematical terms. If you have to calculate risk and discuss it, than there is something not right. If there is a risk you treat it. Period. Risk is like cancer. It can still be there, very small not very dangerous but for no obvious reason it can explode and kill you in a few weeks time.