Don't be fooled and it won't be better but as oil and other basic products and materials are becoming scarce, countries and blocks will begin thinking and acting solely in their own interest of survival. Those who have or can deliver the oil and the basic materials and those who want it and between them there will be a permanent game of cooperation and confrontation.
The war iin Georgia (Europe) in Ossetië is about stabilisation (Georgia) and destabilisation (Russia). Russia doesn't want a stable and strong Georgia at its borders because it knows that once the the pipelines are built and Georgia gets its part of transmission fees, it will be rich and powerful enough to do whatever it wants and Georgia en Russia now all too well that to find the investment and environment to begin such projects you should have stability. That will come with negotiations that will come one day but the question is only what will the relation be between the negotiators ? The one of protected semi-independent subregion (Ossetië as it is now) or the conquered ex rebels that just want some form of local autonomy about things that don't matter at all ? And what happens in Ossetië, which is the most fable of the two semi-independent regions (the other being Abkhazië will have an immediate impact on how the relations between that semi-independent region and Georgia will be. The small region against the forceful and in a winning mood Georgian president or the protected region against a badly failed attacker ? It looks like the endgame has set in - although it may take some time before the game is over (and many deaths in between).
For us Europeans it is all too important who wins because if Georgia doesn't succeed than it will be more difficult to built the pipelines that will make us more independent from OPEC and Russian Gas. But what do I say. We have in Europe no real thinking about Energy security that name worth. If you look at what is happening with the dependency on Russian gas and Arab oil, on the absence of any emergency planning to make more of our own electricity than you can only think that these leaders are wasting an enormous opportunity because the strong Euro protects us against the speculative Oil price. Once the dollar starts climbing again from its absurd low levels than the Europeans will feel that 'OIL SHOCK' twice as hard. I don't understand why they think that this situation can stay on enduring for years and don't take measures that equals the problems ahead of us.
Oh and the war in Iraq is about Oil (and winning it so it can pump new oil also) and the war in Afghanistan is also important because of pipelines and the war in Somalië because of securing the tankers that deliver the oil and don't be surprised but everything will be in the very near future about oil, food and basic materials. All the rest will be B.... (I don't like war personally, I hate it, but I also have to take the things in consideration that are happening around me and show the bigger picture)
The cold war will become the war not to have cold :)
and this why you must begin thinking about the energypolicy of your own environment - as a matter of security and continuity. The smart international investor goes where the stuff is and doesn't think that the stuff will always be delivered to where he is, wherever that may be.
this opinion is also being shared by other analysts see
ps for the US election watchers, this increases the chances of McCain of being elected. If people understand that the consequences of a totally Russian controlled energy market and pipelineroutes because the young democracies were crushed and blackmailed - and see the consequences daily in their pockets - they will chose a president that will do something about it and not just talk about it